Given the stark difference in results from the last two block auctions Blockheads and Channel Nine could be expected to be on edge and for very good reason.
During the week CoreLogic RP Data reported the national auction clearance rate from the weekend to be 79.2 per cent, the second strongest result on record; it is the strongest result since September 2009. This kind of activity clearly indicates the current housing market is a sellers market, but come auction time on The Block Triple Threat will this activity of buyer enthusiasm translate into a turn around in results for the Nine Network and The Block contestants.
In The Block Fans v Faves, all Blockheads walked away with $500,000 plus in winnings ranging from $507,250 to $636,000. Compared with the results from The Block Glasshouse where only Shannon and Simon, Chris and Jenna walked away with more than $50,000 while the other 3 teams were left to share $60,000 between them. Advocates and contestants blamed the Prahran location (next to a busy tramline), too many (five) apartments being auctioned at once, widely differing reserve prices and a lack of genuine buyers for the result.
BMT have been fortunate enough to be the preferred supplier of depreciation schedules to The Block over the last few years and recently we’ve taken to comparing how our depreciation estimates fare in predicting reserve pricing order and auction results for the show. So far it’s been a mixed bag of results but we think this season’s reserve price order, auction results and stars will align more closely to the order of our depreciation estimates once again. We’ll just have to wait with anticipation to see how we fare.
(We have used the maximum estimated depreciation claimable over the life of the property to compare with the reserve prices and auction results. The difference between the two prices equalling the percentage change from the estimated maximum depreciation claimable)
Season 7 – The Block Sky High depreciation estimates vs. reserve prices & auction results
You would have picked the Trifecta plus the Quinella in racing terms if you had placed a bet that reserve pricing and auction results would be in order of our depreciation estimates.
- We were spot on
- Average reserve price increase on maximum depreciation estimate 20.23%
- Average auction result increase on maximum depreciation estimate 33.86%
Season 8 – The Block Fan vs Faves depreciation estimates vs reserve prices & auction results
Estimates were all over the shop as reserve prices and auctions results have been said to not have been the norm.
- We were nowhere near predicting the auction results and you would have lost money had you placed a bet
- Average reserve price increase on maximum depreciation estimate 35.78%
Season 9 – The Block Glasshouse depreciation estimates vs. reserve prices & auction results
With increased costs it was understandable to see reserve pricing much lower percentage wise than the previous season. We think if you were the buyers for Michael & Carlene or Deanne and Darren’s you certainly got a bargain.
- We were 3 from 5 for both reserve price order and auction results
- Average reserve price increase on maximum depreciation estimate 5.61%
- Average auction result increase on maximum depreciation estimate 12.69%
So for some fun:
Season 10 – The Block Triple Threat depreciation estimates vs. reserve prices & auction results
- With the work the Nine network have done to make sure a repeat of last season does not happen again, we think we will see the reserve prices set conservatively at 15.18% of the maximum depreciation. If all goes to plan the Blockheads could all walk away on average with $200,000 plus in winnings. If all does not go to plan, then it could be very much like Tim and Anastasia’s time on the block, out of pocket with a very bad taste in your mouth.
- Average reserve price increase on maximum depreciation estimate 15.18%
- Average auction result increase on maximum depreciation estimate 25.93%