Population records broken all over Australia

Simon Pressley — Wed, 01 Feb 2017 03:17:05 +0000

Western Australia creates a Grand Canyon while Victoria gives birth to Mackay While we were all tucking in to our Christmas ham, the latest series of population data was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealing a few new records broken by Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Northern Territory and New South Wales. Demand for housing remains incredibly high with Australia’s population growing by an average of 863 people per day during the quarter ending June 2016. The annual increase of 337,821 has been quite consistent over the last four years. 54 per cent of Australia’s population growth for the year came from overseas migration. Of the 78,600 total population increase for the quarter, an all-time record 47,247 came from natural increase (births minus deaths). The 86,700 births during the June quarter well and truly exceeds the previous record of 78,100 in the March 2012 quarter. The mixed fortunes at a state-by-state level are indicative of the recent performance of capital city property markets. Victoria’s population is breaking all sorts of record highs while, on the other hand, Western Australia appears to be falling in a hole deeper than the Grand Canyon; both South Australia and Northern Territory have set new interstate migration records for the wrong reasons. After more than a decade of nation-leading population growth, Western Australia’s 1.05 per cent growth for the year ending June 2016 is well below the national average of 1.42 per cent. Forty three consecutive quarters of positive growth of interstate migration during the boom years has been followed by nine straight quarters negative growth. The 2,805 people that migrated away from Western Australia in the June 2016 quarter is an all-time record and the 996 net increase in overseas migration during the quarter pales in to insignificance when compared to the 13,165 comparative figure from four years earlier. This concerning population trend in Western Australia is a dampener for housing demand at a time when Perth has been producing record volumes of new homes. It is absolutely no coincidence that Western Australia’s population shift follows the path of falling iron ore prices. As shown in this graphic, the parallel of these two metrics is incredible. Western Australia has a lot going for it, however its economy is the least diversified of all Australian states. It needs to (quickly) develop other sectors of its economy. Namely, tourism, agriculture, and the international student market. The biggest success story from population data continues to be Victoria. The 123,131 total population increase for the year to June 2016 surpassed the record previously held by Queensland (115,561 in 2008). 65,007 (53 per cent) was from overseas migration. Victoria’s total population growth last year is comparable in size to the total population of Australia’s nineteenth biggest city, Mackay. Victoria’s records don’t stop there. The 14,903 natural increase for the June quarter is a state record as is the 4,947 quarterly increase in interstate migration. It’s now been three consecutive quarters that interstate migration in Victoria has been more than 4,000 (last achieved way back in 1995). While we know that Victoria’s construction industry has had no problem building enough dwellings to cater for the demand, the biggest challenge will be whether the state can continue to create enough jobs. It may be a couple of years before we all know the full impact on Melbourne’s economy from car manufacturing closures. New South Wales’s population grew by 105,585 over the year to June 2016 and is on track for a fourth consecutive year of 100,000 plus increases – a feat never achieved before in Australian history. The state continues to be the main arrival point for internationals with the net increase in overseas migration for the year being 71,161. While the state’s economy remains incredibly strong, lack of housing affordability would be the primary cause for 11,349 people relocating interstate during the year ending June 2016. Queensland’s population growth rate of 1.35 per cent for the year ending June 2016 was just behind New South Wales. The 4,844,473 population spread across the sunshine state is comparable to the population crammed in to greater-Sydney. We may be seeing the beginning of a new trend with Queensland’s population. The 3,328 quarterly increase in interstate migration is its highest since December 2008. The June quarter marked three consecutive periods of interstate migration of more than 3,000. A rebound in coal prices will make it easier for job creation to attract more people across the border but, if Brisbane’s property market is to fully awaken from its slumber, funding initiatives for new infrastructure is what is really needed. South Australia’s population growth rate of 0.1 per cent for the June quarter was the lowest in Australia. Negative growth in interstate migration of 1,873 is the state’s worst performance in over twenty years. Things are really grinding to a halt in Northern Territory with a total increase in population over the year of a mere 534 people. It’s now been twenty seven consecutive quarters since the top end produced a positive interstate migration figure. Improved economic conditions are behind Tasmania’s sustained population rebound. The state has produced positive growth in interstate migration in four of the last five quarters (a stark difference to the previous sixteen consecutive quarters of negative growth). Canberra’s population growth rate of 1.29 per cent for the last year continues to closely follow the national trend. The June 2016 quarter produced the highest natural increase (births / deaths) dating back to the start of ABS in 1981.

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Population growth forecasts – Queensland

Simon Pressley — Fri, 23 Sep 2016 02:05:57 +0000

While it is most certainly not the only or most important factor, population growth forecasts are part of every well-considered property investment decision. With eleven strong regional cities each with a population of more than 50,000 people, this is particularly important in Queensland where more people live outside the state’s capital city than it. Throughout the noughties era, Queensland’s population growth was a national success story. Over the last few years, the sunshine state’s population growth has been much more subdued with 2015 growth rate of 1.2 per cent being significantly lower than the ten year average of 2 per cent. Propertyology believes that the recent slide is due to a combination of the coal industry downturn, fewer employment opportunities generally, and higher levels of state debt preventing economic stimulus. That said, we believe that there is good reason to be optimistic about Queensland’s future population growth. Tourism and agriculture are strong pillars of the economy which have a very promising outlook. Logic would also suggest that there’ll be an upturn for the mining industry at some stage in future years (the world will always need energy). Data from Queensland Treasury suggests that parts of South East Queensland, Gladstone, Townsville, and Cairns are forecast for the biggest population growth rates through to 2036. Queensland is the second most decentralised state in Australia (after Tasmania). Whereas other states have a majority of their population living within their respective capital cities, only 48 per cent of Queensland’s population reside in greater-Brisbane. Brisbane City Council is the largest local government area in Australia. Population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent through to 2036, well below the state average forecast of 1.7 per cent. The state is forecasting greater-Brisbane to accommodate most of its growing population in Ipswich (4.2 per cent), Logan (2.2 per cent), and Moreton Bay (1.9 per cent). Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Scenic Rim, all within the state’s south east corner, are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 per cent. The state’s industrial powerhouse, Gladstone is expected to continue its long history of above-average population growth with 2.4 per cent average annual growth forecast. Gladstone has extremely valuable port and rail infrastructure and is the state’s epicentre for resources exporting and industrial manufacturing. While the property market in Gladstone has struggled recently due to an over-stimulated construction industry the raw fundamentals still include above average wages, strong population growth, and economic development. In the state’s north, Cairns (1.7 per cent) and Townsville (1.9 per cent) justifiably have population growth forecasts well above Brisbane’s 1.1 per cent out to 2036. Proximity to Asia, international airports, and deep sea port infrastructure will ensure that both cities play a huge role in helping Australia to capitalise in the Asian Century. Population growth is one of many factors which influence property markets. For a variety of reasons, Queensland markets which Propertyology maintains a keen interest include Rockhampton, Cairns, Townsville, Gladstone, Bundaberg, Toowoomba, and Scenic Rim.

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Population records broken all over Australia

Population growth forecasts – Queensland